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Weather forecast
A meteorological forecast is the expected state of meteorological quantities or their fields, obtained on the basis of studying the laws of the atmosphere according to the methods used.
According to the advance time, weather forecasts are divided into short term (KPP) and long term (DPP).
Short term weather forecasts include weather forecasts with a lead time of up to 36 hours, long - term weather forecasts more than 36 hours.
The PPC also includes ultra short term weather forecasts (these are most often aviation weather forecasts), weather forecasts for half a day, a day, sea forecasts, medical.
The materials that are necessary for the compilation of the checkpoint are synoptic maps (prognostic, diagnostic), vertical sections of the atmosphere, diagrams, meteorological radar data (MRL), satellite data, non analytical data.
A variety of synoptic and meteorological information is used, which allows you to make a short term forecast as accurately as possible and with maximum advance time.
DPP includes short term forecasts (from 36 hours to 3 days), three - day forecasts for the natural synoptic period (PSP 3, 4, 5 days), pentad, decadal and monthly.
The DPP also includes ultra - long term forecasts for a season and a year, climatological forecasts - for an epoch, several years.
Short term weather forecasts are divided into several types:
- Weather forecasts for general use are compiled for a wide range of the population and some national economic organizations;
- Specialized weather forecasts or operational industry forecasts are compiled for certain sectors of the national economy, taking into account the specifics of the work of this industry.
For example, aviation weather forecasts that take into account the impact of weather conditions on the operation of air transport.
There are also marine weather forecasts, weather forecasts for agricultural areas, utilities, logging, work in the forest, medical weather forecasts, etc..
Forecasts for general use and forecasts for a number of organizations consist of a 12 hour interval separately per day and at night.
Daily weather forecasts can be updated with forecasts for a shorter time.
The terminology of forecasts is regulated by the Management of the Forecast Service.
The weather forecast should be clear, concise, contain such terminology that excludes ambiguity of interpretation.
The storm warning service is of great importance in the operational maintenance of the economy and the population.
Regardless of the weather forecast, if a dangerous (NYA) or natural hydrometeorological phenomena (OHS) is expected, then a storm warning (SHO) or a storm warning (SHP) is necessarily on a par with the weather forecast, which is given with the maximum possible advance.
Forecasts are made for a point, route, district, region, throughout the country, as well as for large territories (for example, throughout Europe.).
Weather forecasts for a large territory are called background forecasts.
Weather forecasts for a smaller area are updated by introducing local or local amendments.
Depending on the branch of the national economy for which a particular weather forecast is compiled, it contains various information.
For example, general weather forecasts provide for clouds, precipitation, special events, wind and air temperature.
For the navy - the direction and speed of the wind, weather phenomena, visibility, air and water temperature.
In aviation forecasts - the number and shape of clouds, taking into account all tiers, the lower and upper limit of clouds, cloudless layers, dangerous phenomena, wind direction and speed, air pressure and temperature.
Depending on the characteristics of the predicted values, weather forecasts are divided into quantitative and qualitative ones.
For example, the temperature is more often given by a number - a quantitative forecast, cloud cover - both qualitatively and quantitatively.
Weather forecasts can have a categorical form, including probabilistic (alternative forecasts).
When making weather forecasts, both synchronous and asynchronous communications are used.
Synchronous communication is the connection between meteorological quantities at the same time.
When forming weather forecasts, it is necessary to remember that the process of making a forecast has a step by step nature: it is necessary to first make a background forecast, since the fields of meteorological quantities are multifactorial and interrelated.
Regarding the consideration of the relationship between various meteorological variables, the synoptic forecasting method has a number of advantages.
This method is divided into several stages:
1) based on the analysis of the current and future synoptic situation, a background forecast is made;
2) the nature of advection is determined ("transfer" of weather conditions that have already been observed);
3) corrections are introduced for the evolution of meteorological quantities (transformation);
4) local amendments are taken into account, taking into account local features.
At this time, several methods of forecasting meteorological quantities are used in operational practice:
- The qualitative physical method of forecasting weather conditions is based on the forecast of the synoptic situation and related weather conditions.
This connection is based on the characteristic patterns of the development of baric formations, that is, the background forecast consists of;
- The hydrodynamic method of forecasting is based on the establishment of a functional relationship between the trends of a meteorological value and the actual value of this parameter.
At this time, hydrodynamic methods are used to make forecasts of pressure fields, geopotential, then proceed to the forecast of wind at the earth's surface and at altitudes.
These data are used to construct trajectories, temperature fields, advective phenomena, etc.;
- Statistical (probabilistic) methods of forecasting.
They are based on the study of the relationship between the future value of meteorological variables (predictor) and a number of parameters (called predictor in statistics).
The predictive regression equations are composed.
It is very important to establish a connection between the predictor and the predictor, as well as to select the right number of predictors.
Prognostic connections are established in the diagnosis, and then, after testing on independent material, they can be used in the work.
Along with weather forecasts, warnings about the occurrence of dangerous weather events, their intensity and duration, as well as consultations of heads of organizations about expected meteorological conditions, or those that have already developed, play an important role.
Consultations provide an opportunity to bring the dynamics of changes in weather conditions to the consumer more fully and in detail.
The service of warnings about dangerous and natural hydrometeorological weather phenomena developed in our country along with the development of meteorological observations and the improvement of weather forecasting methods.
However, its most rapid development has occurred in the last three decades.
The Hydrometeorological Center (GMC), the Weather Bureau (GMB) and observatories carry out the main work on the prevention of NS and OHS.
When providing national economic organizations with warnings, the following are taken into account:
- The district (territory) for which a warning is drawn up for a national economic organization;
- A list of meteorological quantities, weather phenomena and their critical values that may cause a violation of the norms of the organization's activities;
- Ways to bring the warning to the organization that is being served;
- The necessary and desired advance warning of a particular meteorological magnitude or weather phenomenon;
- The procedure for canceling a storm warning.
A special place is occupied by warnings about OHSS, which can lead to natural disasters.
Natural hydrometeorological phenomena include such meteorological, agrometeorological, hydrological and marine hydrometeorological phenomena that, by their intensity, distribution areas and duration, can cause or have already caused damage to the national economy and the population and caused natural disasters.
One of the indicators of the efficiency of servicing national economic organizations is the justifiability of weather forecasts and storm warnings.
Despite the fact that not all forecasts and storm warnings are justified, they have a great economic effect.
Basic requirements for weather forecasting methods:
1) The initial data for the development of forecasts according to the method under consideration should have an accuracy that provides an acceptable forecast error.
It is better to use actual data for the forecast than predictive data.
2) The initial data for the development of the forecast should be available to forecasters when making the forecast.
3) The method must be objective.
4) The method should ensure the accuracy of the forecast of meteorological quantities or phenomena, which satisfies the majority of consumers.
5) The method must be tested in advance on an independent material, that is, approved.
Published by Admin on 11.10.2014 · In the Training materials · 0 Comments · 775 Readings
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