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Science and Technology " Tea parties at the Academy
Tea parties at the Eureka Academy The Unknown Ecology Technologies Useful to know
The author was interviewed by Vladimir Gubarev
16 Feb 2015 at 12: 41
Arctic exploration: plans and reality
Science and Technology " Tea parties at the Academy
"Tea parties at the Academy" - a permanent heading of Pravda.
Ru.
The writer Vladimir Gubarev writes about his meetings with scientists, academicians of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
This time Vladimir Stepanovich met with academician, famous geologist Nikolai Laverov.
Nikolai Pavlovich is closely engaged in the issue of energy development of the Russian Federation.
The main topic of the conversation was the development of the Arctic.
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Read also: Tea parties at the Academy: The truth is beautiful and in rags!
They say that there are no prophets in their own country.
It's not true there is!
And fortunately, there are not as few of them as it sometimes seems.
I was once again convinced of this when I attended the first General Meeting of the Big Academy.
Indeed — this is the first meeting attended by members of the former three state Academies the RAS itself, as well as the medical and agricultural, and now the unified Academy, which I still call the Big One.
This is in order to distinguish it from the previous RAS, which has already gone down in history…
I understand how difficult it was to choose a topic for a Scientific session, such that it would interest all members of a Large Academy, and not just arouse curiosity, but also gave an opportunity to think about how to participate in an actual scientific problem yourself.
The Arctic is an ideal object for this.
And there are many reasons for this, and it was about them that the speakers who rose to the podium spoke.
I listened to the speeches of the country's largest scientists, and I always remembered one person.
No, he was not speaking now, he was almost invisible in the hall, but I knew that it was thanks to him that scientists of different specialties could talk about their research, be proud of their achievements, and make plans for the future in the development and knowledge of the Arctic.
He can be safely called a Prophet, because it was he who was able to maintain a constant interest in the Arctic, in solving its problems, in the Academy of Sciences and in official circles.
Even when it came to the election of new members of the Academy, he primarily supported those who "stuck" to the Arctic, to its endless white expanses, fascinating, but never fully understood.
Artur Chilingarov, our mutual friend, can confirm this.
Nikolai Pavlovich Laverov belongs to the galaxy of Russian scientists who have played and are playing a decisive role in its fate.
Our Homeland needed uranium to create nuclear weapons, and it was the geologist Laverov and his colleagues who helped solve this most difficult problem — it was believed that we did not have enough of this most important strategic raw material.
But young scientists have created such methods of uranium mining that allowed them to "collect mountains bit by bit," as one of them figuratively put it.
During the rapid development of almost all branches of science (and there was such a time in our country!)
Laverov stood in a row with the legendary Mstislav Vsevolodovich Keldysh.
He headed the science of Kyrgyzstan and turned it into an equal member of the great Academy of Sciences of the USSR.
His works were not only noted, but also noticed, and therefore Nikolai Pavlovich was already in Moscow among the leaders who determined the development of not only domestic science, but also industry, and many branches of modern technology.
For many years, he was the vice president of the Russian Academy of Sciences, who oversees the Earth sciences, the very industries that make Russia one of the world powers, possessing both nuclear weapons and huge reserves of raw materials.
Academician Laverov is directly related to both, and therefore his word in the Russian Security Council is so often — weighty and decisive.
I did not call him a "Prophet" by chance.
Three years ago, Yekaterinburg hosted the "Science Week", which was attended by the country's largest scientists.
Academician Laverov made a big report on energy.
That day, we talked in some detail with him about the energy future of Russia and the world.
Some of Laverov's conclusions and remarks are not only relevant today, but also, in my opinion, fateful.
So, some fragments of our conversation in the Urals.
— Our meeting is taking place in the Urals, where the "Science Week"begins.
Why are you here?
— They say that the main thing in the Urals is metallurgy.
But this is not entirely accurate.
We are celebrating the 80th anniversary of academic science in the Urals and the 25th anniversary of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
It seems to me that both of these dates are symbolic.
The fact is that with the creation of the Academy's Branch here, the difficult and long term work on creating, as we said at the time, "regional centers of science"was completed.
These were the very sprouts that began to develop rapidly across the country, lifting it to new heights.
The Ural Branch is one of the best examples of this rise.
Well, if we go back to the past further, then 80 years of academic science is connected with the formation of the Urals as the "backbone of the state".
And this is the merit of not only metallurgists, but also geologists, who have always been close by.
I know this well, because I took part in this when I was young.
In the Urals, the connection between academic science and industry was clearly marked, and therefore, I think, it is an excellent example of such a partnership.
— Your report sounds unusual:- Isnot "Energy resources in the context of geopolitics" too global?
— In my opinion, today we should look at the problems taking place in the world in this way.
This will allow us to choose the exact and correct path to the future, which is very important to do today.
- So as not to get lost?
- Do not get lost in this complex world…
And this is primarily due to the provision of energy to humanity.
Our well being and development depend on it.
Energy forums are now held annually.
But, unfortunately, only in two cities Moscow and St. Petersburg.
These meetings show that the development of energy is closely linked with the solution of major industrial and high tech tasks.
It cannot be otherwise: it is impossible to separate these problems, although many people try to do this.
There is an opinion that we are literally "drowned" in energy abundance, they say, it is it that hinders the development of high technologies.
— What are they, if there is a lot of oil and gas?!
"Exactly!
However, this idea is "lulling", it is erroneous.
This is a deep misconception, as it creates a false idea of the values of the modern world.
It is known that the most powerful country in the world — the United States — receives a huge amount of energy resources from the Middle East, from Latin America, from us.
To be honest, thanks to this, many countries of the world live well, thanks to the fact that they trade so successfully with America.
And, it would seem, such a situation will always exist.
However, this is not the case!
If we carefully follow what is happening across the ocean, we can easily see that the Americans have created a powerful energy base that will allow them to completely free themselves from dependence on other energy supplier countries.
They have been going to this for a long time: several presidents proclaimed and supported the "energy independence program", and now they have achieved their goal.
— And in what way?"
— For thirty years they have been working on the problem of the so called "shale oil" and "shale gas".
This year, they extracted 200 billion cubic meters of gas from shale.
They have firmly embarked on the path of fully supplying their largest industry in the world with hydrocarbon raw materials.
The situation is exactly the same with oil.
They are already receiving about 300 million tons of oil from shale, which is very significant.
And these important industries are developing rapidly there.
By 2025, Americans will not only stop importing oil and gas, but also become their exporters.
And this will radically change the whole situation on the planet.
— But they say that shale oil and gas are too expensive and it is unprofitable to produce them?
— This is what they always say about new technologies, until they become commonplace.
By the way, similar processes are underway in China.
Today, China is the second economy on the planet.
Soon she will be the first…
The main directions of development have been chosen there, and first of all we are talking about oil.
The Chinese will use every opportunity to obtain hydrocarbons — not only to buy them abroad, but also to develop their own resources.
Yes, we need new technologies for producing and refining oil, and there is no doubt that they will be created.
— It's easier for us: after all, we still have a lot of oil and gas?
— This is a special conversation.
We have the opportunity to switch to high technologies, to carry out a new high tech revolution.
We have economic opportunities, they are provided by high oil and gas prices.
Let's go back to the past.
The beginning of the 90s.
For seven years we were going through a crisis that led us to default.
The cost of oil then was eight dollars per ton.
I will not talk about anything else, I will emphasize only one thing: today all experts in the world are closely monitoring the price of oil, because the development of the world economy depends on it.
Unfortunately, there is very little scientific research on how to move from an economy focused on raw materials to an economy with high tech industries today.
Therefore, our science, our scientists should be engaged in this more vigorously than before.
This work should be done, because we are interested in it more than anyone else, and no one will do it for us.
- A new problem?
- Of course.
If we take large investments, capital investments that are able to develop the scientific, technical and industrial base, it is clearly visible that they are directed primarily to the fuel and energy complex.
By the way, there are also highly qualified personnel there.
Is it good or bad?
I do not underestimate the role of metallurgy, mechanical engineering, and other industries, but nevertheless I want to emphasize that the industries related to hydrocarbons will determine the level of the economy of Russia and other countries for a long time to come.
This should be remembered.
- We must look for other ways!
- Of course.
But we live in an inertial system.
In addition, it is very unstable.
We have repeatedly been convinced that energy crises can change the situation in the world, and this has happened in our memory.
- So, we should not count on the fact that gasoline will become cheaper?
- Absolutely.
According to forecasts, by the 30th year, oil production will begin to fall, but this is not due to the fact that the need for it will decrease.
And because of the sources of production, there will be fewer of them.
— You have drawn a "picture of energy", so to speak, on a global scale.
And what will happen in Russia?
- About one and a half billion tons of conventional fuel are consumed here.
Of these, about 44 percent are exported, and the rest is domestic consumption.
Nuclear power and thermal power plants make up nine percent in total.
Industry, transport and agriculture consume only 18 percent, and 20-25 percent of electricity is lost in the networks, that is, during the transmission of energy from production to the consumer.
Thus, about 70 percent of fuel resources either go abroad or are wasted.
It is difficult to imagine such a wasteful owner!
Of course, this situation is due to the fact that fuel exports provide us with the bulk of our finances.
- A dead end?
— And yet this scheme is progressive!
— How can this be?!
- Electricity is produced at our gas fired stations.
And this (strange as it sounds like this!) high tech production.
There is nothing like this in the world.
Gas as a source for electricity production, and then as a source of motor fuel, is a good solution.
This is both modern technologies and a great science.
Moreover, our country has the good fortune to manage huge gas resources, and it must be done intelligently and efficiently.
— Will it be enough?
— A group of scientists has been calculating gas reserves in the country since Soviet times.
We determined how resources are distributed.
Geologists distribute them in the following way: explored reserves, that is, those that we are currently using, pre estimated reserves — those that are certainly there and we know this, but we need capital investments to take them, and, finally, promising reserves — those that are scientifically justified, but not yet "certified", as we say.
That is, they are not opened either by drilling operations or by other methods.
There is also such a thing as "accumulated production", that is, a record is kept of how much is taken from the subsurface.
Let me inform you: only 16 percent of oil has been taken from the bowels of Russia for all this time.
17 percent are proven reserves, and eight percent are previously estimated.
Well, 60 percent already belong to the promising ones.
These dry figures tell a knowledgeable person a lot, and first of all about how to deploy geological exploration work.
Do not shorten — what is happening now!
- and develop it.
It is necessary that resources become reserves.
The difference is that reserves are deposits prepared for exploitation, and resources are just assumptions.
Thus, we have a lot of resources, but not enough reserves…
- An unexpected conclusion!
— This is the reality…
Let's take gas now.
There is an even more serious situation here.
The proven reserves are 20 percent, 7 are pre — estimated and 68 are promising.
We started actively taking gas after the war, and during this time we managed to take only about 5 percent of the resources known to us.
To say that Russia is running out of oil and gas is at least unjustified.
But, despite such an optimistic conclusion, it should be remembered that the resources that scientists have discovered "at the tip of the pen" are located in different places and in complex geological structures.
— It follows from our conversation that we should not worry too much, they say, the raw material base will provide us with a comfortable existence for another good hundred years!?
- This is a traditional, unfortunately, misconception!
In terms of energy production, we will reach the level of 1990 only by 2020 — this is exactly what the economic downturn turned out to be as a result of market reforms.
The situation is similar in terms of energy and heat capacity…
— But after all, we have "huge plans", and our leaders constantly talk about them?!
— In order to implement these plans, it is necessary to move away from the usual, raw material economy.
If we go the same way, we will need almost twice as much conventional fuel in 2020 as before.
That is, 2.6 billion tons instead of one and a half billion.
It is clear that such a development of the raw material base is impossible.
So, we need structural adjustments of the economy.
Real, not mythical.
Otherwise, we will find ourselves in an energy impasse.
— Where should we go in this case?
- To the Arctic.
Huge oil and gas resources are concentrated there.
After the glaciation, the giant continent sank under the water, it took with it huge reserves of raw materials.
We have conducted comprehensive and extensive research in the Arctic.
In particular, the geophysical ones.
A number of promising areas have been discovered in the Barents Sea, wells have been drilled here and the forecasts are confirmed.
From the Kara Sea to Chukotka, geological studies will have to be conducted — there are still many "white spots".
In total, according to calculations, there are about 100 billion tons of conventional fuel in the Arctic, of which 80 percent is in the Russian sector of the Arctic.
Therefore, work in the Arctic is of crucial importance for the future of our country.
However, you can only go there with new technologies, with the most modern equipment, with good scientific support.
And here we can talk about certain successes over the past ten years, we have accumulated significant experience that allows us to look into the future with confidence.
We are currently producing more than 10 conditional million tons in oil equivalent.
This is more than all the countries of the Arctic shelf.
Therefore, it is wrong to say that "we were asleep and did nothing" (and some politicians are trying to assert this).
In fact, a huge amount of work has been done, and it is incommensurable with what is being done in other countries.
However, despite the previous statement, I note that geological research is still at an initial stage.
The Norwegians and Swedes have already explored significant territories, they have drilled a large number of wells in the Eastern Atlantic.
Moreover, the scope of work is better and wider than on the continental sections.
The Norwegians showed that oil deposits are found in many sediments, the age of which is from 400 to 80 million years.
The layered oil saturation of the basins is unusually high.
For example, the thickness of one such layer, located from the Kola Peninsula to Norway, is 18 kilometers.
The picture is similar to what we see in the Caspian basin.
— But how to extract this oil?
— Some projects have already been implemented.
Others are just being created.
In my opinion, underwater complexes will become widespread.
Ten wells are combined, and from this complex, through pipelines stretched along the seabed, the fuel enters the processing plant, where it is separated.
And then the liquefied gas and oil are transported to consumers by tankers and special vessels.
The entire complex is managed automatically.
- Fantastic!
— No, this is a great achievement of science.
Other programs have also been implemented.
In particular, special platforms have been created that are located far out to sea, and all oil and gas production is already carried out from them.
— You have drawn a picture of the development of the Arctic, which is very difficult to imagine!?
- Humanity has to do all this, otherwise it will simply not survive.
Obtaining energy and its rational use have always remained a priority, not only the development of civilization, but also its well being depended and depends on them.
I donot particularly want to comment on the ideas and thoughts of Academician Laverov — everything is quite obvious.
I just want to remind you that we talked three years ago!
It's just a pity that the words of the academician were not listened to about shale oil, the development of the Arctic, the development of the energy complex, geological exploration, and many other problems that our science and its real scientists were clear how to solve.
It is their conclusions made decades ago that our officials and some leaders are now voicing as their own.
And even now, I have not seen the heads of ministries and departments, large companies and corporations at the General Meeting of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
But the conversation was about the fate of the Arctic — that part of Russia where our future is hidden.
This is exactly what the scientists talked about in their speeches at the Scientific Session.
The following entries appeared in my notebook:
Academician V. Fortov: "The scientific community has long assessed the role of the Arctic in the economy of the future Russia.
Thus, the great Russian scientist M. V. Lomonosov believed that the geographical position obliges Russia to look for exits to the free ocean not in the southern, but, first of all, in the northern seas, summarized the experience of polar voyages.
He wrote: "...the power and vastness of the surrounding seas requires ... calculation and knowledge.
By the way, the Northern Ocean is a spatial field where ...
Russian glory, combined with unprecedented benefits, can worsen…"
The beginning of the development of the Arctic Ocean by the Russians dates back to the middle of the X11 century, when the Pomors first came to the shores of the White and then the Barents Seas…
Currently, scientific research in the Arctic, carried out within the framework of the Program of Fundamental Scientific Research of the State Academies of Sciences for 2013-2020, is mainly concentrated in the Kola Scientific Center, the Tyumen and Yakut scientific centers of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the Arkhangelsk Scientific Center of the Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
The research carried out by the Academy provides a scientific justification for a number of major Arctic problems."
Academician A. Dynkin: "The policy of the Arctic countries on the main issues of the regional agenda — sustainable socio economic development, adaptation to the consequences of climate change, preservation of the marine environment and ecological systems, ensuring the safety of navigation, prevention and elimination of the consequences of emergency situations, conservation and rational use of biological resources — is characterized by a high level of convergence of interests and goals.
Against the background of the current deterioration of Russia's relations with Western countries, all discussions in the Arctic format are characterized by a constructive nature, a mood for cooperation and strengthening the Arctic Council as the main forum for resolving regional issues."
Academician N. Dobretsov, Corresponding member of the Russian Academy of Sciences V. Vernikovsky: "The Arctic Ocean is the youngest ocean on Earth and the smallest in size — only 15 million square kilometers.
Its main feature is that most of the ocean floor is occupied by the shelf and underwater continental margins.
The increased interest in the Arctic Ocean is primarily due to geopolitical aspects and problems related to the mineral resources of the Arctic shelves, as well as ecology, climate, and permafrost.
The solution of these problems is connected with our knowledge of the geological structure of the Arctic, the processes of formation and the age of the geological structures of the base of the Arctic Ocean, including the structure of the Arctic sedimentary basins in connection with their oil and gas content…
Due to the fact that there are fewer and fewer real Arctic geologists and geophysicists every year, it is necessary to create interdepartmental teams of employees of Rosnedra, RAS, universities and companies to solve major tasks and perform expedition work in the Arctic.
Due to the many features of such work, it is necessary to think about special training in universities of Arctic geologists and geophysicists.
Effective geological and geophysical work in the Arctic is impossible without a special Arctic research fleet equipped with helicopters and equipment for underwater drilling."
Academician A. Kontorovich: "For the huge volumes of oil and gas produced in the Arctic, it seems to many that this has always been the case.
Meanwhile, behind the discoveries and exploration, behind the development of these fields, behind the creation of transport infrastructure, behind the creation of equipment for the discovery, exploration and development of oil fields, behind the creation of comfortable conditions for the conquerors of the bowels of the Russian North, there was a gigantic, unique, it would not be an exaggeration to say, the heroic work of several generations of scientists of the USSR Academy of Sciences, universities of the country, branch institutes of the Ministry of Geology, the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Gas Industry and many other ministries and departments.
The solution of the super tasks of forecasting, scientific substantiation of search directions, creation of exploration technologies, development of oil and gas fields, creation of infrastructure, construction technologies in the most difficult natural and climatic conditions of the Arctic was completely carried out by domestic science, the engineering corps, industry, using domestic production of machinery, domestic equipment.
The world practice has not had such experience and such results of work in the Arctic and does not have…
Since the time of the pioneers of the Arctic and Antarctic, it is well known that the Arctic is conquered only by strong people, people who have a goal and go to it no matter what and despite everything.
For most of the twentieth century, the Soviet Union, Russia was a pioneer in the development of the Arctic.
Has a quarter of a century of living on everything purchased, including brains, which some reformers are strenuously teaching us, finally destroyed the main strong qualities of the Russian nation?
I donot believe it!"
Academician N. Bortnikov: "Russia occupies one of the leading places in the world among the Arctic countries producers of strategic metals.
In addition to the huge reserves of oil and gas raw materials, about 10 percent of the active world reserves of nickel, about 19 percent of platinum group metals, 10 percent of titanium, more than 3 percent of zinc, cobalt, gold and silver, as well as rare earth metals are located in the Arctic regions of Russia…
The prospects for the development of Arctic deposits of strategic metals, in addition to the scale and richness of their ores, are largely determined by the proximity to the Northern Sea Route and navigable rivers, which significantly increases the profitability of the mines due to the use of water transport.
Environmental risk is the main factor hindering the construction of new mines in the Arctic."
Doctor of Biological Sciences M. Flint: "One of the main issues related to ecosystems and biological resources of the Marine Arctic at the present time is whether biological production and the volume of available biological resources will increase due to the warming of the Arctic climate, the lengthening of the ice free period and the increase in the area of open water in the summer period?
The climate response in different Arctic ecosystems will be different.
Long term observations in the Barents Sea suggest an increase in biological production and an increase in reserves and the area of distribution of the key bioresource of the ecosystem — capelin with an increase in water temperature, a shift to the north and an increase in the length of the summer ice boundary, an increase in the length of ocean fronts.
The long term trend of climate warming will lead to an increase in the number of capelin, which will have a positive impact on the stocks of biological resources — cod and other predatory fish species."
Academician G. Romanenko: "More than 90 years ago, the researchers of the Polar Experimental Station of the All Union Institute of Crop Production (VIR), on the initiative of Nikolai Ivanovich Vavilov, began to study the possibility of creating a local food base to provide the population of the Arctic with fresh dairy and vegetable food.
During this time, large scale work has been carried out to identify donors and sources of economically valuable traits of agricultural plants in the conditions of the Far North, to mobilize the unique northern gene pool of potatoes, cereals, vegetables, fodder and berry crops.
Whole series of varieties of these crops have been created, which are maximally adapted for cultivation in the Arctic zone.
Today, only in the Polar Branch of the VIR, 3,946 samples of priceless genetic material are preserved and studied."
Academician A. Litvak: "Acoustic signals in the range up to the first hundreds of hertz are an effective means of monitoring the ocean at scales from tens to thousands of kilometers…
The work in the field of acoustics of the Arctic Ocean is of particular importance in connection with the intensification of Russia's activities in the Arctic.
Methods and technical means of hydroacoustics can be useful here in solving a variety of tasks, including such a task of a geopolitical nature
