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16.09.13
Russia intends to accelerate the development of the Arctic
Through tax incentives, the construction of the Arctic fleet, including a nuclear powered vessel with a capacity of 110 MW and the creation of transport infrastructure in the Far North, writes PortNews.
Competitors from warmer countries do not let you relax - Qatari and Australian LNG can already take the lion's share of the market by the time of the launch of Russian projects, leaving Russia alone with its pipeline and transit problems.
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Russia has faced a whole range of economic, technical and political problems in the development of the Arctic.
The economic ones are that the offshore Arctic deposits of Russia are located in such climatic zones that create extreme working conditions.
It is necessary to invest huge investments in their development, it is necessary to create infrastructure in extremely adverse weather conditions, to build a powerful icebreaker fleet using the latest technological achievements.
The most striking example of a project that was postponed indefinitely due to the above difficulties is Shtokmanovsky.
As Valery Golubev, Deputy Chairman of the Gazprom Management Board, said during the 11th International Exhibition and Conference on the Development of Oil and Gas Resources of the Russian Arctic and the Continental Shelf of the CIS Countries (RAO/CIS Offshore), "we are ready to make a decision on this project today, but the world situation does not require it.
The existing deposits ensure the fulfillment of our contracts."
Nevertheless, it seems to us that the representative of Gazprom did not tell the whole truth.
The fact is that the Shtokman project was designed, among other things, for gas liquefaction (according to the project, the production of 7.5 million tons per year at the plant in Teriberka), and the growing global LNG market requires Russia to accelerate the relevant projects - otherwise it may be too late to divide the most delicious "Asian pie".
Pipeline gas is, of course, good, but its trade is too dependent on transit and political risks, in addition, importers are trying to diversify its supplies at the expense of LNG.
If Russia is unable to take a decent share in global LNG exports, its importance as an energy power will inevitably decline.
And in the paradigm of the raw material development model chosen by the country's leadership, this is tantamount to collapse.
The main importers of LNG in the medium term will be the countries of Europe (excluding Norway, which is a gas exporter) and the Asia Pacific region (primarily China, India and Japan).
However, Russia has strong competitors in both the western and eastern directions.
Firstly, Qatar is already the largest LNG producer, which has the ability to quickly reorient gas supplies from Europe to Asia and vice versa.
Its gas export capabilities will increase even more if the situation around Syria as a transit country is resolved according to the" Western " scenario.
Iran is likely to compete with Qatar here.
Secondly, Norway and African countries (Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Nigeria) will compete with Russia on the European market.
It should also be noted that there is currently a struggle between the West, Russia and China for political influence in these countries.
In the Far Eastern markets (the most promising), a powerful competitor is Australia, which is increasing its gas liquefaction capacity at an accelerated pace, as well as Middle Eastern exporters (first of all, the already mentioned Qatar).
According to the data provided during the RAO/CIS Offshore by the representative of the Australian Russian Dialogue (ARD) Alexey Goncharov, LNG exports from Australia will more than double by 2017, reaching 63 million tons.
According to Goncharov, currently 209 search licenses, 88 production licenses, 45 retention licenses, 69 pipeline licenses, 2 gas infrastructure licenses have been issued in Australia..
For comparison, we will give the following figures: in the same year 2017, and even then, provided that the Yamal LNG project is implemented on time, the total volume of LNG exports from Russia will be only about 15-16 million tons per year (at the expense of the existing plant under the Sakhalin 2 project and the planned commissioning of the first stage of Yamal LNG in 2017).
According to the plans, the main Russian LNG facilities will start operating only from 2018.
That is, Russia is already lagging behind its competitors.
In this regard, earlier, the co owner of Novatek (the main shareholder of Yamal LNG), Gennady Timchenko, said: "it does not matter whose gas it will be - ours or Gazprom, the main thing is that it should be Russian."
According to Goncharov, it is worth considering the option of entering Australian companies with an equity participation in Russian oil projects in exchange for the equity participation of Russian companies in Australian projects for liquefied gas, coal seam gas and shale gas.
The expediency of this is that if Russia loses to Australia in the field of LNG, then the Australians, for their part, are interested in Russian oil.
So the freezing of offshore projects, if it corresponds to the current situation, does not meet the longer term challenges at all.
And as the true reason for the suspension of the implementation of the same Shtokman project, experts call extreme conditions for its implementation, requiring huge investments and the latest technological solutions.
The competitive advantage of other countries over Russia is favorable climatic conditions.
They do not need to build an icebreaker fleet, solve problems related to the construction of ports and factories in permafrost and ice conditions of the Far North, etc.
In Russia, you will have to do all this.
Thus, the designers and builders of the port of Sabetta (Yamal LNG), in fact, are pioneers and are forced to invent and test various tricks related to resisting extreme climate.
For example, according to Vladimir Merzlikin, a representative of JSC LENMORNIIPROEKT, who spoke during the RAO/CIS Offshore, it is proposed to artificially heat the port's water area by pumping water heated with a gas boiler into it.
Also, more powerful berths will have to be built in Sabetta than in other ports.
There are other difficulties associated with the need to create a social and transport infrastructure in such conditions.
Therefore, in order to encourage investors to participate in such expensive and complex projects, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Ecology of Russia has prepared amendments to the legislation that provide a number of tax benefits for companies investing in the development of Arctic deposits.
As Deputy Minister Denis Khramov said during the RAO/CIS Offshore, these amendments will stimulate the inflow of investment in the development of hard to recover northern fields, and their adoption by the State Duma is expected in the near future.
They will ensure a return on investment of 10-15%.
According to the deputy minister, the optimal ratio of private and public investments in offshore projects is 1 RUB.
from the state for 7-8 rubles.
from the investor.
True, Russia also has some advantages in the gas sector, but they are not being used yet.
Thus, according to Alexey Kontorovich, chairman of the Scientific Council of the Russian Academy of Sciences on Geology and Development of Oil and Gas Fields, Russian northern gas is "fat", i.e. it contains additional inclusions that can be used in petrochemistry, thereby creating additional cost.
This is what they do in Qatar, but Russia, instead, simply exports gas, losing profit.
The fleet is the head of everything In order to ensure regular navigation along the Northern Sea Route, it is also necessary to have a powerful icebreaker fleet.
Thus, according to the calculations of the Krylov State Scientific Center, the commercial feasibility of maintaining navigation on the Northern Sea Route for Russia will come on the condition that at least 12 million tons per year will be transported through this route.
To ensure such a cargo flow, it is necessary to build the most powerful nuclear icebreakers.
Currently, work has already begun on the construction of the most powerful nuclear powered vessel at 60 MW to date, but in 2014 it is expected to announce a competition for the design of an even more powerful icebreaker at 110 MW, which will become the flagship of the icebreaker fleet of the world.
In addition, there is still no consensus in the expert community about which gas carriers are more profitable to use for work in the Arctic.
Thus, the Krylov State Scientific Center is conducting a controversy with the Yamal LNG company about the expediency of choosing the latter in favor of large capacity gas carriers with a capacity of 170 thousand cubic meters.m.
And Gazprom expects to build tankers capable of navigating the Northern Sea Route without icebreaking wiring.
It is also worth noting that the Arctic zone of Russia is still little explored.
This means that significant research work is required.
This also requires a significant fleet.
So, according to Denis Khramov, the fleet of Roshydromet lacks about 107 vessels.
According to him, 15 vessels of an unlimited navigation area, 8 vessels of a limited navigation area and 84 vessels are required to work in internal waters.
Currently, the fleet of Roshydromet is 80 vessels.
In general, about 6.5 trillion rubles will be required for ship support of offshore projects in Russia until 2030.
Currently, according to Denis Khramov, 129 licenses for the development of water areas have been issued in Russia, 34 licenses are in operation (13 of them are for applications from Gazprom and Rosneft, 8 are auction ones).
In accordance with the license obligations, investors will have to drill 290 wells.
According to Khramov, from 2015 to 2020, Gazprom and Rosneft will have to drill 16 wells per season.
As for political problems, it should be borne in mind that Russia is not the only Arctic state.
The Arctic is claimed by a number of strong powers, including Canada, the United States, Norway, etc.
Speaking at the RAO/CIS Offshore, the ambassador - at large of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the representative of Russia in the Arctic Council, Anton Vasiliev, tried to calm the Russians who were frightened by the "horror stories of the press" and said that there is nothing to divide in the Arctic almost all the resources are located in the territorial zones of the respective states.
However, the consolation was not very convincing - even he recognized the growing military presence in the region.
In addition, there is also dissatisfaction with some of the results of the mentioned "division" - for example, not everyone in Russia is delighted with the delimitation of the possessions of Russia and Norway in the Barents Sea, thanks to which Norway received rich deposits.
And how sovereignty is respected in the modern world can be judged by the events of recent years around Iraq, Georgia, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria...
So the economic, shipbuilding and technological problems of developing the Arctic are also added to the issues of ensuring national interests in it.
And this also requires expenses for the equipment of northern military bases, the purchase of appropriate equipment, etc.
So we can conclude that if in the 30s of the last century the USSR faced the difficult task of forced industrialization to overcome the lag behind the leading powers, today, within the framework of the chosen raw material model of economic development, the task of no less accelerated development of the northern lands and water areas is on the agenda, which will also require the exertion of all the forces and resources of the country.
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