thumb|Progress in machine classification of images
---- The error rate of AI by year.
Red line - the error rate of a trained human on a particular task
Artificial intelligence applications have been used in a wide range of fields including medical diagnosis, stock trading, robot control, law, scientific discovery, video games, and toys.
However, many AI applications are not perceived as AI:  "A lot of cutting edge AI has filtered into general applications, often without being called AI because once something becomes useful enough and common enough it's not labeled AI anymore."
AI set to exceed human brain power CNN.com (July 26, 2006) "Many thousands of AI applications are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of every industry."
In the late 1990s and early 21st century, AI technology became widely used as elements of larger systems, under "Artificial Intelligence in the 90s" but the field was rarely credited for these successes at the time.
Kaplan and Haenlein structure artificial intelligence along three evolutionary stages: 1) artificial narrow intelligence – applying AI only to specific tasks; 2) artificial general intelligence – applying AI to several areas and able to autonomously solve problems they were never even designed for; and 3) artificial super intelligence – applying AI to any area capable of scientific creativity, social skills, and general wisdom.
To allow comparison with human performance, artificial intelligence can be evaluated on constrained and well-defined problems.
Such tests have been termed subject matter expert Turing tests.
Also, smaller problems provide more achievable goals and there are an ever-increasing number of positive results.
Current performance
There are many useful abilities that can be described as showing some form of intelligence.
This gives better insight into the comparative success of artificial intelligence in different areas.
AI, like electricity or the steam engine, is a general purpose technology.
There is no consensus on how to characterize which tasks AI tends to excel at.
Some versions of Moravec's paradox observe that humans are more likely to outperform machines in areas such as physical dexterity that have been the direct target of natural selection.
While projects such as AlphaZero have succeeded in generating their own knowledge from scratch, many other machine learning projects require large training datasets.
Researcher Andrew Ng has suggested, as a "highly imperfect rule of thumb", that "almost anything a typical human can do with less than one second of mental thought, we can probably now or in the near future automate using AI."
Games provide a high-profile benchmark for assessing rates of progress; many games have a large professional player base and a well-established competitive rating system.
AlphaGo brought the era of classical board-game benchmarks to a close when Artificial Intelligence proved their competitive edge over humans in 2016.
Deep Mind’s AlphaGo AI software program defeated the world’s best professional Go Player Lee Sedol.
Games of imperfect knowledge provide new challenges to AI in the area of game theory; the most prominent milestone in this area was brought to a close by Libratus' poker victory in 2017.
E-sports continue to provide additional benchmarks; Facebook AI, Deepmind, and others have engaged with the popular StarCraft franchise of videogames.
Broad classes of outcome for an AI test may be given as:`
optimal: it is not possible to perform better (note: some of these entries were solved by humans)
super-human: performs better than all humans
high-human: performs better than most humans
par-human: performs similarly to most humans
sub-human: performs worse than most humans
Optimal
Tic-tac-toe
Connect Four: 1988
Checkers (aka 8x8 draughts): Weakly solved (2007)
Rubik's Cube: Mostly solved (2010)
Heads-up limit hold'em poker: Statistically optimal in the sense that "a human lifetime of play is not sufficient to establish with statistical significance that the strategy is not an exact solution" (2015)
Super-human
Othello (aka reversi): c. 1997
Scrabble: 2006
Backgammon: c. 1995–2002
Chess: Supercomputer (c. 1997); Personal computer (c. 2006); Mobile phone (c. 2009); Computer defeats human + computer (c. 2017)
Jeopardy!: Question answering, although the machine did not use speech recognition (2011)Watson beats Jeopardy grand-champions.
https://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/17/science/17jeopardy-watson.html
Arimaa: 2015
Shogi: c. 2017
Go: 2017
Heads-up no-limit hold'em poker: 2017
Six-player no-limit hold'em poker: 2019
High-human
Crosswords: c. 2012Proverb: The probabilistic cruciverbalist.
By Greg A. Keim, Noam Shazeer, Michael L. Littman, Sushant Agarwal, Catherine M. Cheves, Joseph Fitzgerald, Jason Grosland, Fan Jiang, Shannon Pollard, and Karl Weinmeister.
1999.
In Proceedings of the Sixteenth National Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 710-717.
Menlo Park, Calif.: AAAI Press.
Dota 2: 2018
Bridge card-playing: According to a 2009 review, "the best programs are attaining expert status as (bridge) card players", excluding bidding.Bethe, P. M. (2009).
The state of automated bridge play.
StarCraft II: 2019
Par-human
Optical character recognition for ISO 1073-1:1976 and similar special characters.
Classification of images
Handwriting recognition
Sub-human
Optical character recognition for printed text (nearing par-human for Latin-script typewritten text)
Object recognition
Facial recognition: Low to mid human accuracy (as of 2014)
Visual question answering,Antol, Stanislaw, et al.
"Vqa: Visual question answering."
Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Computer Vision.
2015.
such as the VQA 1.0
Various robotics tasks that may require advances in robot hardware as well as AI, including:
Stable bipedal locomotion: Bipedal robots can walk, but are less stable than human walkers (as of 2017)
Humanoid soccer
Speech recognition: "nearly equal to human performance" (2017)
Explainability.
Current medical systems can diagnose certain medical conditions well, but cannot explain to users why they made the diagnosis.Brynjolfsson, E., & Mitchell, T. (2017).
What can machine learning do?
Workforce implications.
Science, 358(6370), 1530-1534.
Stock market prediction: Financial data collection and processing using Machine Learning algorithms
Various tasks that are difficult to solve without contextual knowledge, including:
Translation
Word-sense disambiguation
Natural language processing
Proposed tests of artificial intelligence
In his famous Turing test, Alan Turing picked language, the defining feature of human beings, for its basis.
The Turing test is now considered too exploitable to be a meaningful benchmark.
The Feigenbaum test, proposed by the inventor of expert systems, tests a machine's knowledge and expertise about a specific subject.
A paper by Jim Gray of Microsoft in 2003 suggested extending the Turing test to speech understanding, speaking and recognizing objects and behavior.
Proposed "universal intelligence" tests aim to compare how well machines, humans, and even non-human animals perform on problem sets that are generic as possible.
At an extreme, the test suite can contain every possible problem, weighted by Kolmogorov complexity; unfortunately, these problem sets tend to be dominated by impoverished pattern-matching exercises where a tuned AI can easily exceed human performance levels.
Competitions
Many competitions and prizes, such as the Imagenet Challenge, promote research in artificial intelligence.
The most common areas of competition include general machine intelligence, conversational behavior, data-mining, robotic cars, and robot soccer as well as conventional games.
Past and current predictions
An expert poll around 2016, conducted by Katja Grace of the Future of Humanity Institute and associates, gave median estimates of 3 years for championship Angry Birds, 4 years for the World Series of Poker, and 6 years for StarCraft.
On more subjective tasks, the poll gave 6 years for folding laundry as well as an average human worker, 7–10 years for expertly answering 'easily Googleable' questions, 8 years for average speech transcription, 9 years for average telephone banking, and 11 years for expert songwriting, but over 30 years for writing a New York Times bestseller or winning the Putnam math competition.
Chess
thumb|right|Deep Blue at the Computer History Museum An AI defeated a grandmaster in a regulation tournament game for the first time in 1988; rebranded as Deep Blue, it beat the reigning human world chess champion in 1997 (see Deep Blue versus Garry Kasparov).
Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Chess
Go
AlphaGo defeated a European Go champion in October 2015, and Lee Sedol in March 2016, one of the world's top players (see AlphaGo versus Lee Sedol).
According to Scientific American and other sources, most observers had expected superhuman Computer Go performance to be at least a decade away.
Estimates when computers would exceed humans at Go
Human-level artificial general intelligence (AGI)
AI pioneer and economist Herbert A. Simon inaccurately predicted in 1965: "Machines will be capable, within twenty years, of doing any work a man can do".
Similarly, in 1970 Marvin Minsky wrote that "Within a generation... the problem of creating artificial intelligence will substantially be solved."
Four polls conducted in 2012 and 2013 suggested that the median estimate among experts for when AGI would arrive was 2040 to 2050, depending on the poll.Müller, V. C., & Bostrom, N. (2016).
Future progress in artificial intelligence: A survey of expert opinion.
In Fundamental issues of artificial intelligence (pp. 555-572).
Springer, Cham.
The Grace poll around 2016 found results varied depending on how the question was framed.
Respondents asked to estimate "when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers" gave an aggregated median answer of 45 years and a 10% chance of it occurring within 9 years.
Other respondents asked to estimate "when all occupations are fully automatable.
That is, when for any occupation, machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply than human workers" estimated a median of 122 years and a 10% probability of 20 years.
The median response for when "AI researcher" could be fully automated was around 90 years.
No link was found between seniority and optimism, but Asian researchers were much more optimistic than North American researchers on average; Asians predicted 30 years on average for "accomplish every task", compared with the 74 years predicted by North Americans.Grace, K., Salvatier, J., Dafoe, A., Zhang, B., & Evans, O. (2017).
When will AI exceed human performance?
Evidence from AI experts.
arXiv preprint arXiv:1705.08807.
Estimates of when AGI will arrive
See also
Applications of artificial intelligence
List of artificial intelligence projects
List of emerging technologies
References
Notes
External links
MIRI database of predictions about AGI
